Bitcoin It has never done this before in its history. There is a good chance that all quarterly candles in 2022 will be red. So far, there have been 3 bearish quarterly candles out of 4 in only two years in BTC trading history. That may change in a few days.
A deep crypto winter of 2022 has taken bitcoin and the wider crypto market into previously uncharted territory. For example, never in history has the price of BTC fallen below the all-time high (ATH) set in the previous cycle during a prolonged bear market. However, this year, bitcoin has fallen below the historic ATH of $20,000 set in late 2017.
Another example is the rule that bitcoin never closes a monthly candle (green arrow) below the 50-month moving average (50M MA, orange). In 2022, it has already traded 6 months below this line (blue arrow). Furthermore, on the weekly chart, it narrowly declined below the 200-week moving average (200W MA). However, it has already traded below this for 28 weeks this year.
4 Red Bitcoin Quarterly Candles
There is a high probability that these historical precedents on the long-term BTC chart will soon be intertwined. For the first time in bitcoin’s trading history, all 4 quarterly candles could be bearish.
This will happen if BTC fails to close December above the $19,422 level. At press time, the bitcoin price would have to increase by about 15% over the next 4 days to close the quarterly candle in the green. This seems unlikely as BTC has been trading in a sideways trend for several weeks now.
Looking at BTC trading history, we see that all 4 quarterly candles have never been red in any calendar year. Furthermore, there have never been 4 consecutive red candles in the history of the quarterly charts.
In only two periods – 2014/15 and 2019/2020 – did the bitcoin price generate 3 consecutive red candles. Meanwhile, only two years saw a recession in 3 out of 4 quarters. These were in 2014 and 2018 – in both cases a quarter was green (orange area).
A Negative 2022 and an Outlook for 2023
recently Youtube videoNoted cryptocurrency market analyst Jason Pizzino also addressed this unprecedented development in his Bitcoin quarterly charts. He presented and discussed a table in which he included the ROI of all historical quarterly periods.
The above table confirms our findings from the previous section with 3 Bearish Quarterly Candlesticks: 2014 and 2018 for almost two years. If 2022 closes below the $19,422 level, it will be an unprecedented 4 red quarters. Furthermore, they must have arisen within the same calendar year.
Furthermore, we note that the worst periods ever for the cryptocurrency market have appeared in a 4-year pattern: 2014, 2018, 2022. This fits the story of the bitcoin halving, which happens once every 4 years. Currently, about 65% of the time has elapsed since the last halving. as BeInCrypto toldHistorically this has been correlated with macro lows in BTC price.
Furthermore, according to the data in the table, we see that the years following the weakest period saw fairly average price action with a major sideways trend. In both 2015 and 2019, two quarters were green and two were red. Only the next two years (including the first halving year) were mostly green quarters and large BTC price appreciation.
If such a pattern is repeated now, it is likely that 2023 will be a time of accumulation and a macro sideways trend. Only the halving in 2024 and the next 12-18 months following that event could bring in another massive bull market for cryptocurrencies.
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