Kusma (KSM) worth It could be close to completing its five-wave downward movement, after which a relief rally is expected.
KSM price has declined below a descending resistance line since July 2022. The line has caused six rejections (red icons) so far, the most recent on 30 December. This led to a minimum of $20.62 on 2 January.
There is no clear horizontal support below the current price. The main support area was $24.30, but it has now been broken. So, the next closest support area is formed by the 1.61% external Fibonacci retracement level at $15.86.
While a potential double bottom (green icon) is expected, the pattern has not been coupled with a bullish divergence RSI, Conversely, the RSI is below 50 and declining.
Consequently, the KSM price analysis from the daily time frame is leaning towards bearish. This, in turn, would lead to a bearish KSM price prediction for January, suggesting a future drop below $20 for the price.
A breakout above the descending resistance line and the $24.30 resistance area will invalidate this bearish price forecast.
KSM Price Prediction for January: New Lows Before Relief
Technical analysis from the six-hour chart shows that KSM price is in the process of completing a five-wave downward movement (red). If so, it is currently in Wave Five. The short-term sub-wave count indicates that Kusama price is also in sub-wave five (black), which could potentially be completed in the next 24 hours.
If the count is correct, then the price of Kusama will fall to $20.95 or even $17.80. Targets are detected using 1:0.618 and 1:1 projections of one and three (red) waves. The latter is also close to the previously mentioned Fibonacci support area, so it could be reached if the last downward move extends.
However, a five-wave downward movement is usually followed by a bullish retracement. If this happens, KSM price will eventually break out of the descending resistance line.
To conclude, the future KSM price movement is unclear. However, a drop below $20 is the most likely scenario given the relatively bearish short-term price action and wave count. If it does, it will likely be followed by a relief rally.
A breakout from the long-term descending resistance line would indicate that the downward movement is complete.
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